A single weather icon is a poor itinerary. On St. John, the useful question is not only “Will it rain?” but where, when, for how long, and what else is happening at the same time?
Separate forecast guidance from official warnings
Forecast models help plan. National Weather Service watches and warnings provide official safety guidance. When they conflict with an activity recommendation, the official alert wins.
Wind is not the same at every beach
An island-level wind forecast is context. Headlands, bay orientation, swell, and local terrain change conditions at the shore. Use it to narrow choices, then observe locally and follow lifeguard, ranger, and operator guidance.
UV can be the day’s limiting condition
An otherwise pleasant day can carry very high UV. Earlier activity, shade, protective clothing, water, and a midday pause often improve the day more than chasing a marginal difference in rain probability.
See the current weather and conditions page for source timestamps and official links.